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A new Miami Herald poll shows Davis edging out Smith by five percentage points, the same gap found in last month's survey. Since then, sugar growers have unleashed a multimillion-dollar ad campaign against Davis for missing votes in Congress and rejecting compensation for two wrongfully convicted black men.
In contrast, the Republican races for governor and U.S. Senate appear foregone conclusions, according to the poll conducted by Zogby International. The most dramatic lead comes in the GOP governor's race, where Florida Attorney General Charlie Crist is ahead of state Chief Financial Officer Tom Gallagher by about 30 percentage points.
That's a 10-point jump for Crist in three weeks. Undecided voters broke evenly between Davis and Smith. Twenty-eight percent of likely Democratic voters still haven't made up their minds.
The lesser-known candidates for governor -- Democrats Glenn Burkett, Carol Castagnero and John Crotty and Republicans Vernon Palmer and Michael St. Jean -- received negligible support.
In the Republican primary for the U.S. Senate, Katherine Harris collected almost as many votes as her three lesser-known rivals combined. Harris, a Sarasota congresswoman and former Florida secretary of state, received 38.6 percent of the votes. The runner-up, Orlando attorney Will McBride, surged more than 10 percentage points to 22.9 percent. Leroy Collins Jr., a retired Navy admiral from Tampa, and Peter Monroe, a Safety Harbor developer, lagged in third and last place, respectively.
If Harris wins as expected, she would face Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson in the general election. He's the heavy favorite, Zogby said, considering all of Harris' highprofile troubles, including massive staff turnover and her acceptance of illegal campaign contributions from a corrupt defense contractor. Harris has said she did not know they were illegal.
Among Democrats, 44.6 percent say it's time for someone new in the U.S. Senate -- which Zogby called ''worse than anemic'' support for Nelson -- but the senator has $12 million on hand to pump up his popularity before Nov. 7.
In the race for state chief financial officer, Senate President Tom Lee leads state Rep. Randy Johnson 41.6 percent to 28.3 percent. The winner will face Democrat Alex Sink. The CFO is a powerful financial watchdog and member of the Florida Cabinet, but the candidates tend to be overshadowed by the marquee race for governor.
Under fire from Big Sugar, Davis has charged that Smith is beholden to the Everglades-polluting industry. Smith and his corporate allies have flayed Davis for posting the second-worst attendance record in the U.S. House of Representatives and for voting in the Florida Legislature against compensating Freddie Pitts and Wilbert Lee, two black men who spent 12 years in prison for murders they didn't commit.
For example, 35.9 percent found Smith's criticism of the 1990 vote convincing, while 32 percent accepted Davis' explanation that there was not enough evidence to justify restitution, even though they had been exonerated from Death Row and another man had confessed to the crime.
But Smith is winning more support than Davis from black voters, according to the poll, suggesting that the Pitts and Lee case may be hitting them harder. Hispanic voters are split. Smith is just barely ahead among Demcratic voters in South Florida and in North Florida, his home turf.
Davis leads by 20 percentage points in his back yard in Central Florida. Smith has to expand his thin leads in the top and bottom of the state if he's going to overcome the congressman from populous Tampa Bay.
Smith stuck to his scheduled North Florida tour Friday instead of participating in a televised debate that had been called off earlier in the week due to Tropical Storm Ernesto.
In South Florida, home to the Everglades and the state's liberal stronghold, Smith's ties to the sugar industry may hurt him the most. Two sugar-backed front groups attacking Davis have collected nearly $4 million. That's more money than Smith's campaign has raised overall, though he has also raised money for the state party, which in turn picks up some of his campaign expenses.
Smith, who serves as chairman of the Senate Agriculture Committee, has defended his independence. In the poll, 30.6 percent took his side, while 36.7 agreed with Davis that Smith is in the industry's pocket.
Gallagher's main line of attack against Crist -- that he's too liberal -- isn't working, according to the survey. More than 80 percent of Republicans described Crist as moderate or conservative. Only 9.5 percent saw Crist as liberal, compared with 12.7 percent who described Gallagher that way -- even though he has run a campaign embracing positions taken by religious conservatives on abortion, gay rights and stem-cell research.
In fact, a majority of both Republicans and Democrats want to leave undisturbed the 2002 constitutional amendment restricting class sizes. Crist has said he initially opposed the amendment but thinks the state should comply with the voter mandate. Gallagher has said the plan is too costly.
Both Gallagher and Crist have tried to undercut each other's claims that they are ''pro-life.'' Asked whether the next governor should make it harder for women to obtain abortions, 58.4 percent of Republicans said yes. Roughly the same percentage of Democrats said no.
Gallagher has also gone after Crist for supporting reforms that would allow illegal immigrants to work toward citizenship. But more than 55 percent of Republican voters share Crist's view, the poll says.
And half of the Republicans in the poll disagree with Gallagher's opposition to federal funding for embryonic stem cell research. Crist has said he supports funding such research.
Both Republican candidates support a constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage, a position backed by 61 percent of the Republican voters in the poll.
The survey shows why both Gallagher and Crist are jockeying to be seen as the rightful successor to term-limited Gov. Jeb Bush: Among Republicans, more than 90 percent have a favorable opinion of Bush. Asked if his policies should be continued, 83 percent said yes.
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A new Miami Herald poll shows Davis edging out Smith by five percentage points, the same gap found in last month's survey. Since then, sugar growers have unleashed a multimillion-dollar ad campaign against Davis for missing votes in Congress and rejecting compensation for two wrongfully convicted black men.
In contrast, the Republican races for governor and U.S. Senate appear foregone conclusions, according to the poll conducted by Zogby International. The most dramatic lead comes in the GOP governor's race, where Florida Attorney General Charlie Crist is ahead of state Chief Financial Officer Tom Gallagher by about 30 percentage points.
That's a 10-point jump for Crist in three weeks. Undecided voters broke evenly between Davis and Smith. Twenty-eight percent of likely Democratic voters still haven't made up their minds.
The lesser-known candidates for governor -- Democrats Glenn Burkett, Carol Castagnero and John Crotty and Republicans Vernon Palmer and Michael St. Jean -- received negligible support.
In the Republican primary for the U.S. Senate, Katherine Harris collected almost as many votes as her three lesser-known rivals combined. Harris, a Sarasota congresswoman and former Florida secretary of state, received 38.6 percent of the votes. The runner-up, Orlando attorney Will McBride, surged more than 10 percentage points to 22.9 percent. Leroy Collins Jr., a retired Navy admiral from Tampa, and Peter Monroe, a Safety Harbor developer, lagged in third and last place, respectively.
If Harris wins as expected, she would face Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson in the general election. He's the heavy favorite, Zogby said, considering all of Harris' highprofile troubles, including massive staff turnover and her acceptance of illegal campaign contributions from a corrupt defense contractor. Harris has said she did not know they were illegal.
Among Democrats, 44.6 percent say it's time for someone new in the U.S. Senate -- which Zogby called ''worse than anemic'' support for Nelson -- but the senator has $12 million on hand to pump up his popularity before Nov. 7.
In the race for state chief financial officer, Senate President Tom Lee leads state Rep. Randy Johnson 41.6 percent to 28.3 percent. The winner will face Democrat Alex Sink. The CFO is a powerful financial watchdog and member of the Florida Cabinet, but the candidates tend to be overshadowed by the marquee race for governor.
Under fire from Big Sugar, Davis has charged that Smith is beholden to the Everglades-polluting industry. Smith and his corporate allies have flayed Davis for posting the second-worst attendance record in the U.S. House of Representatives and for voting in the Florida Legislature against compensating Freddie Pitts and Wilbert Lee, two black men who spent 12 years in prison for murders they didn't commit.
For example, 35.9 percent found Smith's criticism of the 1990 vote convincing, while 32 percent accepted Davis' explanation that there was not enough evidence to justify restitution, even though they had been exonerated from Death Row and another man had confessed to the crime.
But Smith is winning more support than Davis from black voters, according to the poll, suggesting that the Pitts and Lee case may be hitting them harder. Hispanic voters are split. Smith is just barely ahead among Demcratic voters in South Florida and in North Florida, his home turf.
Davis leads by 20 percentage points in his back yard in Central Florida. Smith has to expand his thin leads in the top and bottom of the state if he's going to overcome the congressman from populous Tampa Bay.
Smith stuck to his scheduled North Florida tour Friday instead of participating in a televised debate that had been called off earlier in the week due to Tropical Storm Ernesto.
In South Florida, home to the Everglades and the state's liberal stronghold, Smith's ties to the sugar industry may hurt him the most. Two sugar-backed front groups attacking Davis have collected nearly $4 million. That's more money than Smith's campaign has raised overall, though he has also raised money for the state party, which in turn picks up some of his campaign expenses.
Smith, who serves as chairman of the Senate Agriculture Committee, has defended his independence. In the poll, 30.6 percent took his side, while 36.7 agreed with Davis that Smith is in the industry's pocket.
Gallagher's main line of attack against Crist -- that he's too liberal -- isn't working, according to the survey. More than 80 percent of Republicans described Crist as moderate or conservative. Only 9.5 percent saw Crist as liberal, compared with 12.7 percent who described Gallagher that way -- even though he has run a campaign embracing positions taken by religious conservatives on abortion, gay rights and stem-cell research.
In fact, a majority of both Republicans and Democrats want to leave undisturbed the 2002 constitutional amendment restricting class sizes. Crist has said he initially opposed the amendment but thinks the state should comply with the voter mandate. Gallagher has said the plan is too costly.
Both Gallagher and Crist have tried to undercut each other's claims that they are ''pro-life.'' Asked whether the next governor should make it harder for women to obtain abortions, 58.4 percent of Republicans said yes. Roughly the same percentage of Democrats said no.
Gallagher has also gone after Crist for supporting reforms that would allow illegal immigrants to work toward citizenship. But more than 55 percent of Republican voters share Crist's view, the poll says.
And half of the Republicans in the poll disagree with Gallagher's opposition to federal funding for embryonic stem cell research. Crist has said he supports funding such research.
Both Republican candidates support a constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage, a position backed by 61 percent of the Republican voters in the poll.
The survey shows why both Gallagher and Crist are jockeying to be seen as the rightful successor to term-limited Gov. Jeb Bush: Among Republicans, more than 90 percent have a favorable opinion of Bush. Asked if his policies should be continued, 83 percent said yes.
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